Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.231724 3.867718 4.577332 5.425060 6.407355 7.506798 8.827425
2025-04-27 2.280038 3.121248 4.170701 5.563086 7.347184 9.540360 12.422064
2025-05-04 1.727776 2.656681 3.930892 5.774780 8.336771 11.727038 16.499721
2025-05-11 1.305859 2.230994 3.612199 5.768108 8.977958 13.495379 20.225439
2025-05-18 0.971528 1.833891 3.227240 5.557892 9.249577 14.734685 23.317973
2025-05-25 0.721289 1.499093 2.853910 5.271232 9.323801 15.647125 25.984675
2025-06-01 0.571787 1.297815 2.651228 5.208353 9.713016 17.044183 29.484052
2025-06-08 0.457708 1.131221 2.470693 5.141233 10.066325 18.396317 33.015245
2025-06-15 0.406067 1.078689 2.490881 5.434130 11.068738 20.899223 38.622270
2025-06-22 0.339672 0.974464 2.385552 5.465357 11.592154 22.624507 43.062687
2025-06-29 0.283355 0.877462 2.274245 5.462153 12.041467 24.249086 47.450883
2025-07-06 0.235879 0.788329 2.160962 5.432994 12.429098 25.786431 51.796185
2025-07-13 0.220568 0.784365 2.248899 5.862926 13.808708 29.322016 60.104155
2025-07-20 0.193103 0.737464 2.224837 6.040866 14.695459 32.015505 67.101812
2025-07-27 0.172105 0.703609 2.226862 6.279579 15.738953 35.104230 75.082648
2025-08-03 0.144810 0.639458 2.134813 6.276409 16.252359 37.185505 81.293283
2025-08-10 0.115163 0.554925 1.966029 6.051396 16.235987 38.185945 85.465342
2025-08-17 0.089139 0.471688 1.779020 5.742948 15.981309 38.658663 88.609283
2025-08-24 0.073779 0.423972 1.687975 5.675328 16.288484 40.343011 94.327356
2025-08-31 0.060999 0.381055 1.601074 5.603017 16.572658 41.996509 100.093537
2025-09-07 0.056914 0.377144 1.645240 5.918788 17.871482 45.998814 111.066588
2025-09-14 0.048837 0.349225 1.597970 5.952450 18.443514 48.401735 118.769223
2025-09-21 0.041475 0.320929 1.541841 5.949000 18.916499 50.613191 126.200518